CHINA MAY NEED MORE THAN THERE IS
China growth path could exceed planet's resources
Henry Sanderson, September 16, 2009 (AP)
"If China's economy continues to expand rapidly and rely heavily on coal and other fossil fuels until the middle of the century, its power consumption would be unsustainable, according to ["China's Low Carbon Development Pathways by 2050"] …
"The two-year study, supported by the U.S.-based Energy Foundation and the international environmental group WWF, also said if China's energy usage structure remains unchanged, its emissions of greenhouse gases blamed for global warming would reach 17 billion tons a year by 2050. That would represent 60 percent of total global emissions and three times China's current production…"
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"…[G]lobal warming will challenge China…its developed east coast cities [will face] rising sea levels…[D]rought-prone agricultural areas [will suffer] further water shortages…Using energy consumption growth trends from 2002 to 2008, the study said China's energy usage could exceed 100 billion tons of standard coal in 2050, more than the Earth's capacity to sustain and far more than the 16.1 billion tons of standard coal the entire planet consumed in 2008.
"But the report says that with massive investment in low-carbon technology and large-scale use of renewable energy and nuclear power, China's carbon dioxide emissions could be reduced to 2005 levels by 2050. Under this scenario they are projected to peak at around 2030 to 2035, with consumption of fossil fuels also peaking before 2040…The projections [assume economic growth] at an annual rate of 8.8 percent from 2005 to 2020, then 6 percent from 2020 to 2035 and 4.4 percent from 2035 to 2050…"
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"…China [will need] to be a leader in energy-saving technology, build environmentally friendly homes, develop more public transportation and limit car usage…[as well as widely install] costly carbon capture and storage projects by the middle of the century…[It must also make] an extra investment of 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) every year from now until 2020, and 1.7 trillion yuan ($248 billion) every year from 2020 to 2030 in improving buildings and heavy industry and building transportation such as railways and subways…
"…Greenpeace China [said the report] is one of the most credible studies of China's energy situation and provides a good foundation for the country's climate policy…[But said meeting its targets will] require large amounts of international financial and technical assistance and strong political will from the Chinese government…Changes in lifestyle [could] contribute most to a reduction in energy demand, but it is doubtful that once-impoverished Chinese will be willing to give up the chance to buy new cars and houses…But the researchers warned China had little choice…"
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